How Flowlity calculates Stock Min

The data points behind the Flowlity Min line, and how Flowlity builds a dynamic, probabilistic safety stock.

Stock Min (shown as the Flowlity Min line in the Planning module) is the dynamic safety stock Flowlity holds to protect availability against demand variability and supply uncertainty. It is the lower bound of the range your stock should stay in, between Flowlity Min and Flowlity Max. See Safety stock settings.

Unlike a classic safety stock, which is a single static value derived from average demand and a fixed lead time, Flowlity's Stock Min is recomputed for every future period. It rises when the coming weeks are riskier (higher or more volatile demand, longer or less reliable supply) and falls when they are calmer, so you carry protection only where and when it is actually needed.

We do not publish the exact formula. This page explains the concept and the data points that feed it, so you can understand why the Flowlity Min line moves the way it does.

The core idea

To cover a product between today and the next delivery, Flowlity needs to answer two questions with uncertainty on both sides:

• How much could demand be? Not just the average, but a realistic high case.

• How long could resupply take? Not just the nominal lead time, but a realistic worst case.

Flowlity models both as probability distributions rather than single numbers, then sizes Stock Min to cover the gap between an expected scenario and a high-risk scenario over the replenishment period. The width of that gap, tuned to your Buffer level, is the safety stock.

Data points Flowlity uses

Flowlity combines several signals, all computed per product and per site:

Demand signals

• Historical demand: past consumption, including its level and its variability.

• Probabilistic demand forecast: Flowlity's forecast, expressed as a range of likely outcomes rather than a single line, including the high-demand case. It includes the effect of promotions and forecast events.

• Forecast accuracy: how well the model has predicted this product recently. A product that is harder to forecast gets more protection.

• Demand variability: how erratic consumption is from period to period.

Supply signals

• Historical lead time: how long resupply has actually taken in the past.

• Probabilistic lead time: the expected lead time and, crucially, its variability, so that unreliable supply is buffered more than dependable supply.

Policy and context signals

• Buffer level: your service level, the share of the risk you want to cover. A higher buffer level widens Stock Min.

• Lower limit: an optional threshold (in quantity or days of coverage) that Stock Min never drops below.

• Supply buffer policy: with the Stock policy, Stock Min is raised to absorb supplier delays.

These settings are explained in Safety stock settings.

Why it is dynamic

Because the demand forecast and the lead-time model are both time-dependent, Stock Min changes across the horizon:

• Ahead of a seasonal peak or a promotion, the high-demand case rises, so Stock Min rises with it.

• When supply becomes more reliable, the lead-time buffer shrinks and Stock Min drops.

• As forecast accuracy improves for a product, less protection is needed for the same service level.

This is what lets Flowlity protect availability while keeping average inventory lower than a static safety stock would require.

Where Stock Min applies

It depends on the inventory strategy of the product:

• Demand-based - Flowlity AI: Flowlity computes Stock Min as described on this page.

• Reorder point + AI: Flowlity computes the reorder point level from lead times and past consumption, sized by your Buffer level.

• Flowlity AI + My min and Reorder point: Flowlity uses the value you set (My Stock Min level or Order point value).

• Make to order and No replenishment: there is no Stock Min.

The Lower limit applies to the two sources where Flowlity computes the level: Demand-based - Flowlity AI and Reorder point + AI.

See it in the app

In Planning, the Flowlity Min row and chart line show Stock Min for every period. To preview the effect of a new buffer level or lower limit, open Product strategy, change the value in the Inventory tab and click Compute new min. The chart then shows a New stock min line, and the Stock Min Coverage block compares the Next 6m avg. with the Simulated next 6m avg. Click Apply to keep the change. See Configure your inventory strategy.

Related pages

• Safety stock settings: Buffer level, lower limit, supply buffer policy and My stock max.

• Inventory strategies: Which strategies use a dynamic Stock Min.

• Demand forecasting explained: How the probabilistic forecast is built.

• Configure your inventory strategy: Step-by-step setup.

• Planning: Where the Flowlity Min line is shown.