Metrics glossary
What each metric in Flowlity means and how to read it.
This page defines the metrics you see in Flowlity, in KPI columns, on the Dashboard and in product details, and explains how to read them.
Forecast accuracy metrics
These metrics measure how close a forecast was to actual demand. As KPI columns, they exist for three forecasts (Flowlity forecast, Final forecast, External forecast) over the last 30 days, 3 months, 6 months or 12 months. In the KPI window, you find them under Past performance.
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
MAPE measures the average percentage gap between the forecast and actual demand:
Formula: ABS(demand - forecast) / demand, as a percentage.
A MAPE of 0% means the forecast was perfect. The lower the value, the better the forecast.
When you look at several products together, Flowlity offers three ways to combine their errors:
Aggregated
Compares the total forecast with the total actual demand across all products. Errors of opposite sign can cancel each other out.
Weighted
Adds up the absolute errors of all products and divides by total demand. High-volume products weigh the most.
Unweighted average
Takes the simple average of each product's own error. A small product counts as much as a large one.
The Dashboard's forecast accuracy chart is monthly. It shows the MAPE of the Flowlity forecast at 1, 3 and 6 months ahead, in the variant you choose. In grouped lists, accuracy subtotals use a weighted average.
MAE (Mean Absolute Error)
MAE measures the average gap between the forecast and actual demand, in quantity:
Formula: ABS(demand - forecast), in quantity (pieces, cases, kg, and so on).
Unlike MAPE, MAE gives the error in real units, which makes the business impact easier to see. For example, an MAE of 50 units tells you the forecast is off by 50 units on average.
FVA (Forecast Value Added)
FVA tells you whether the forecast does better than a simple baseline: the rolling average of the previous three months.
When FVA is positive, the forecast beats the baseline by that percentage. When FVA is negative, the baseline would have been more accurate.
A negative FVA means the forecast needs attention: the product may need forecast events, a manual adjustment, or a review of its demand history.
Demand predictability
Demand predictability is a score per product that reflects how much usable demand history is available for forecasting. It appears as a column in the Demand list, and you can filter on it, for example to scope an automation.
High
Flowlity provides its best forecast: demand history is rich and stable.
Medium
Flowlity provides a good forecast, but demand has been erratic. Consider reviewing forecast events or adjustments.
Low
Past demand data is limited. The forecast may be less reliable: review it manually.
No
No past demand is available. Flowlity cannot generate a forecast. Consider linking similar products to give it history.
Estimated lost sales
Estimated lost sales is the demand you likely missed because a product was out of stock. Flowlity adds up the demand it estimates for the periods where it detected a stockout. It is available as a KPI column, in quantity or in value, over the last 6 or 12 months.
Use it to find the products where stockouts cost you the most.
Stock and inventory metrics
Stock coverage
Stock coverage tells you how many days your stock will last, based on the forecast. Flowlity adds up the forecast demand day by day and counts how many days pass before the stock runs out.
It appears on the Dashboard, in the Planning list, in supply order details and as a KPI column.
Zero stock days
Zero stock days is the average percentage of days without any stock, calculated on MTS (Make-to-Stock) products only. On the Dashboard it is shown over your selected period; as a KPI column it covers the current month, last month, or the last 3, 6 or 12 months.
A decreasing trend means your planning and replenishment are improving.
Inventory level
Inventory level is the stock at the end of each month, in value (your currency) or in quantity. It is shown on the Dashboard and is available as a KPI column.
Overstock
Overstock is the quantity in stock above your My stock max, in quantity or in value. It is available as a KPI column, and the Above My stock max stock alert flags the products concerned. See Alerts.
Net requirement before and after prioritization
On sites where a central warehouse supplies several stores, these order line columns show what each store needed (before prioritization) and what it will get once the warehouse stock is shared out (after prioritization). The gap tells you which stores are short-served.
Dashboard summary metrics
Demand plan
The total final forecast for the selected sites, tags and period, in value or quantity. It is the demand your supply chain needs to serve.
Supply plan
The sum of firm and projected supply orders for the selected sites, tags and period, in value or quantity. Compare it with the demand plan to check that supply and demand are balanced.
Service level
Service level is the percentage of demand you serve over a given horizon. For example, if demand is 100 units and you deliver 95, the service level is 95%.
In Flowlity, service level is a target you set, up to 99.9%, per product or as a default in Buffer policy settings. Flowlity uses this target to size the safety stock: a higher target means a larger buffer.
Sales under promotion
Sales under promotion is the share of your revenue that comes from products sold with a promotion, over the selected period. The Pricing module shows it next to the target you set. See Pricing.
Related pages
Run a forecast accuracy review: decide what to measure and how often.
Add KPI columns: add these metrics as columns in your lists.
KPIs: what a KPI is made of.
Dashboard: the KPI cards and charts.
Safety stock settings: how service level drives safety stock.
Demand forecasting explained: how the forecast is built.
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